Low Visibility and Persistent Turbulence: The State of Commercial Aviation and Aircraft Leasing

article | 01-Oct-21

Low Visibility and Persistent Turbulence: The State of Commercial Aviation and Aircraft Leasing

???????: Adam Cowburn, &nbspBradley Dailey, &nbspGanesh Nair, &nbspJohn Mowry, &nbspLaetitia Achille, &nbspLeah Ryan

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Low Visibility and Persistent Turbulence.

The situation in the commercial aviation industry has continued to evolve with the ever-changing Covid-19 pandemic that has dominated life since early 2020. As of the writing of this report in late August 2021, it has become clear that historical trends have limited applicability to the nature of this ?black swan? event, and economic activity alone is but one driver of air traffic demand.

Covid-19 rippled travel and tourism worldwide, evaporating demand and stalling expectations of a full traffic rebound in the immediate future. Over the longer term, the economy market and aviation industries are still expected generally to revert to long term trends, but near-term dynamics are changing frequently and trend towards volatility.

In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2021-2022 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the years ahead.

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Commercial Aviation Finance Review

At the 2022 Airline Economics New York conference, Alton?s Managing Director John Mowry kicked off the multi-day event with an initial review of the commercial aviation finance industry. Aircraft trading, equity markets, and debt financing dynamics were explored.

????????? | 26-Oct-22

Route to recovery: delayed

In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2022-2023 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the year ahead. The aviation industry has cautiously turned a corner from the Covid-19 pandemic, with traffic rebounding as the world...

?? | 11-Oct-22

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Hydrogen Aircraft and Implications for Aviation Infrastructure

Alton?s white paper turns the spotlight on hydrogen aircraft and the significant implications for aviation infrastructure. In the report, Alton?s experts explore the following questions: What are the impacts of future energy source adoption? How will hydrogen aircraft operations affect infrastructure? What should stakeholders consider in the path to hydrogen...

?? | 25-May-22

Aviation Industry & Macro-Economic Outlook

At Aviation Week?s Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance Americas (ELTF) conference, Alton Aviation Consultancy Managing Director John Mowry provided an assessment of the aviation industry and macroeconomic environment.

????????? | 26-Jan-22

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The Rise of Advanced Air Mobility: Implications on Financing in the Aviation Sector

In the second of a series of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) white papers, Alton focuses the spotlight on the aircraft finance industry. In commercial aviation, aircraft lessors own approximately 50% of all aircraft; yet we have not heretofore seen a similar level of interest in the AAM space. This white...

????????? | 01-Dec-21

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The Rise of Advanced Air Mobility

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) has been a hot topic in the aviation industry. Significant investments have been made as technology, societal trends and ESG goals converge to make AAM a reality. While the aircraft technology may be revolutionary, incorporating AAM into our aviation ecosystem will be more of an evolutionary...

????????? | 15-Nov-21

Introduction to Aircraft and Engine Asset-Backed Securitizations (ABS)

At a recent ISTAT Learning Lab session, Alton Aviation Consultancy managing director John Mowry, alongside Evan Wallach, President & CEO of Global AirFinance Services presented an introduction to aircraft and engine asset backed securitizations (ABS). The session was designed for those seeking a foundational understanding of the aircraft and engine...

????????? | 14-Sep-21

COVID-19: Implications for Lessors

NEW YORK - December 14, 2020: Commercial aviation continues to feel the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with scheduled flights down 46% in the second week of December 2020. At the same time, 38% of the global lessor-owned passenger fleet is currently grounded, and the sharp decline in airline revenues...

?? | 14-Dec-20

Flying Unfriendly Skies: Alton Aviation Consultancy Looks at the State of Commercial Aviation and Aircraft Leasing

Flying unfriendly skies. The performance of the commercial aviation industry has historically been tied to the world?s macroeconomic environment. However, 2020, in the grip of a global pandemic, has demonstrated that economic activity alone is but one driver of air traffic demand and that historical trends have limited applicability to...

?? | 05-Oct-20

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COVID-19: Implications for the Commercial Aviation Industry

NEW YORK - June 2, 2020: The ?New Normal? for the aviation industry is 18-24 months away and key players must prepare for an extended ?Covid overhang? period and a long, turbulent journey to recovery, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy. The global aviation advisory firm today released its independent...

?? | 02-Jun-20

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Alton Aviation Consultancy’s Industry Altimeter 2019-2020

Clear skies ahead? In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2019-2020 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the year ahead. The paper explores air traffic demand trends and drivers, aircraft supply outlook including new technology...

?? | 15-Dec-19

Fundamentals of Aircraft Leasing

At the 20th Anniversary Airfinance Journal Asia Pacific Conference & School in Hong Kong, Alton Aviation Consultancy Director Bradley Dailey made a presentation on the Fundamentals of Aircraft Leasing. The comprehensive presentation provided: a background on aircraft leasing, industry drivers, industry fundamentals, a review of the aircraft leasing competitive...

????????? | 28-Oct-19

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2019 MRO Industry Trends: Asia-Pacific

At the MRO Asia conference held in Singapore, an annual conference hosted by Aviation Week Network, Alton Aviation Consultancy Regional Manager Joshua Ng led a session regarding commercial aviation MRO trends. The presentation included data-driven analysis with regards to global aircraft MRO demand and key drivers of growth, in addition...

????????? | 24-Sep-19

Aircraft Leasing Maintenance Reserves

At Deutsche Bank's 9th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, Alton Aviation Consultancy's Managing Director John Mowry provided ABS debt and equity investors with a presentation on aircraft operating leasing maintenance cash flows. The presentation covered (1) an introduction to aircraft maintenance, (2) aircraft maintenance-related lease provisions, and (3)...

????????? | 03-Sep-19

Untangling the Growing Web of Aircraft Transactions and Values

There are many factors that influence aircraft values, but these factors can be complex. In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2018-2019 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy authored a multi-part paper providing: An overall assessment of the aviation, airline, and aircraft leasing industry; Analysis of observed...

?? | 15-Jan-19

Busting the Myth, East & West

John Mowry, Managing Director, recently presented an assessment of certain characteristics of the Top 10 aircraft lessors at Ishka?s Aviation Finance Festival held in Dublin on June 26, 2018. The presentation compared and contrasted the Top 5 lessors having owners in Greater China with the Top 5 lessors having ownership...

????????? | 26-Jun-18

Aircraft Engine Investment Considerations

Alton Aviation Consultancy?s Managing Director John Mowry presented at Airfinance Journal?s roundtable entitled ?Financing and Investing in Aircraft Engines?, held at The Peninsula Tokyo, on April 18, 2018. The presentation outlined some of the key considerations in engine selection from a range of perspectives, including airlines, aircraft lessors, engine lessors,...

????????? | 17-Apr-18

Impact of Lessee Defaults on Aircraft Leasing

Alton Aviation Consultancy Managing Director John Mowry presented an assessment of the impact airline lessee defaults have on the economics of an individual leased aircraft and on a portfolio of leased aircraft at the Investing in Aviation Finance conference hosted by Ishka in London, a conference forum focused on connecting...

????????? | 12-Apr-18

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Aircraft/Engine Fleet & Retirement Developments

John Mowry, Managing Director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, delivered a presentation titled ?Retirements and Inductions ? How are Fleet Demographics Changing?? at the Aero-Engines Americas conference, an annual event hosted by Aviation Week Network in Miami. The presentation analyzed historical fleet dynamics and review of aircraft and engine retirements, and...

????????? | 10-Feb-18

Factors Influencing Aircraft Operating Lease Economics

At the Airline Economics: Growth Frontiers Dublin 2018 conference, Alton Aviation Consultancy?s Managing Director John Mowry led a session focused on the aircraft operating leasing economics. The presentation reviewed the expanding market for aircraft operating leases, and then explored the wide range of cash flows that influence economics, including acquisition...

????????? | 24-Jan-18