2024 - 2034 Commercial Aircraft Fleet Forecast

article | 23-Sep-24

2024 – 2034 Commercial Aircraft Fleet Forecast

Alton Team: Adam Guthorn, Alan Lim, Jonathan Berger, Joshua Ng

Market: Technology & Mobility, Airports, Aerospace, Airlines

As global air traffic demand exceeds pre-pandemic levels in 2024, airlines are turning their attention to fleet expansion, according to a new report from Alton Aviation Consultancy. Despite record profits, operators need to consider short- and long-term strategies to overcome production issues and secure additional capacity.

The global aviation advisory firm today released its independent 2024-2034 Commercial Aircraft Fleet Forecast, offering detailed insight into current market conditions, alongside a 10-year forecast of air traffic demand and the active fleet. Alton’s projections indicate the fleet should increase from 31,000 aircraft in operation today to 41,100 by 2034, marking an annual growth rate of 2.8%.

Download

Technology & Mobility, Airports, MRO & Aftermarket, Aerospace, Aircraft Leasing & Financing, Airlines

Japan’s Aviation Industry in the Post-COVID Era (Japanese)

Alton Aviation Consultancy's latest paper provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan's aviation market, one of the largest in the APAC region. The report highlights the strength of Japan's airlines, airports, and OEMs, alongside the critical role of Japanese-owned global lessors and Tier-1 aerospace suppliers. Additionally, it explores Japan's strategic...

Article | 29-Aug-24

Technology & Mobility, Airports, MRO & Aftermarket, Aerospace, Aircraft Leasing & Financing, Airlines

Japan’s Aviation Industry in the Post-COVID Era (English)

Article | 28-Aug-24

Technology & Mobility

Investments in AAM – Charting the Path Ahead

AAM Investment Considerations While the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) industry has made significant strides in 2024, the recent shutdown of Universal Hydrogen underscores the inherent uncertainties associated with investments in future technologies. Despite substantial financial commitments to the sector, significant additional capital is still needed to fund the industry, along...

Article | 19-Aug-24

Airports, MRO & Aftermarket, Aerospace, Airlines

The Current Landscape of Singapore’s Aviation Market

Post-COVID Recovery of the Local Aviation Market The local airline industry in Singapore has experienced a robust post-pandemic recovery, driven primarily by a surge in travel demand as Singapore swiftly reopened its borders, but also by the ability of Singapore Airlines to rapidly ramp up its network. Singapore Airlines and...

Article | 24-Jul-24

Technology & Mobility

New Generation Mobility: Financing Considerations for Operators

Financing Considerations for Operators With electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft poised to enter commercial service more fully over the coming years, access to financing may be crucial for operators in order to incorporate these novel aircraft into their fleets. To date, because of limited eVTOLs being delivered to...

Article | 19-Jul-24

Technology & Mobility

New Generation Mobility: Financing Considerations for OEMs

Financing Considerations for OEMs Although progress in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) space has attracted a wave of investment, the amount of funding raised has waned since its peak in 2021. Apart from EHang and AutoFlight’s recent certification under the Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC), all other players across...

Article | 12-Jun-24

Technology & Mobility

A Glimpse of the Chinese Advanced Air Mobility Market

Overview of Chinese AAM Market Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) has emerged as a topic of considerable interest within the global aviation industry. While the Western hemisphere has demonstrated significant enthusiasm towards the AAM industry, there has been similar attention emerging in the East. This article focuses the spotlight on the...

Article | 03-May-24

Technology & Mobility

New Generation Mobility: Operator Considerations – (Part 2)

Operator Fleet Procurement Considerations In our previous short post, we discussed the importance of product market fit and social acceptance as operators procure their eVTOL fleets. Certification and financing are two equally important considerations for operators. Product Market Fit – Vehicle selection based on an operator’s unique use case and...

Article | 15-Apr-24

Technology & Mobility

New Generation Mobility: Operator Considerations – (Part 1)

Operator Fleet Procurement Considerations With the expected launch of eVTOL services at the Paris Olympics in 2024 and the Osaka World Expo in 2025, aspiring eVTOL operators seeking to be early adopters need to develop their business plans and go-to-market strategies to support this vision. Vehicle selection is a key...

Article | 20-Mar-24

Technology & Mobility

2024 Singapore Airshow AAM Forum Key Takeaways

The 2024 Singapore Airshow brought together global aviation leaders to share their insights on current developments for aviation, the challenges to overcome, and their outlook on the industry. Alton Aviation Consultancy, as knowledge partner of the Airshow, facilitated the highly anticipated Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) AeroForum. The AeroForum featured...

Article | 06-Mar-24

Technology & Mobility, Airports, MRO & Aftermarket, Aerospace, Aircraft Leasing & Financing, Airlines

Asia Pacific’s Flight Path: Seizing Opportunities in an Evolving Landscape

The Asia Pacific (APAC) region has long been a cornerstone of the global aviation sector, significantly contributing to aviation growth over the past few decades. While the region’s cautious approach to re-opening and economic slowdown following the pandemic have led to a slower recovery than other parts of the world,...

Article | 19-Feb-24

Technology & Mobility

Podcast: AAM Industry Insights with Alton Experts

AAM Industry Insights with Alton Experts Join our AAM experts, Joshua Ng and Alan Lim, as they share insights on the podcast hosted by 'eVTOL Insights.' In this episode, Joshua and Alan cover Alton's expanding role in the AAM space, discuss the upcoming Singapore Airshow Mobility Forum, and provide an...

Article | 12-Feb-24

Technology & Mobility

AAM Entry-Into-Service Considerations – Airport Shuttle Service

AAM Entry-Into-Service Considerations - Airport Shuttle Service As advanced air mobility (AAM) nears initial commercialization in the middle of this decade, we take a look at the initial entry-into-service considerations at one of the promising early use cases for AAM – the airport shuttle service. We breakdown the stakeholder considerations...

Article | 08-Jan-24

Technology & Mobility

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM): Implications for Transport Service Providers

New Value Propositions Operators have broad ambitions for eVTOLs and are particularly excited by the potential of these new-generation vehicles to revolutionize air transport by lowering costs and / or by opening up new revenue streams. With the increased focus on climate change, the ability of eVTOLs to have zero...

Article | 01-Nov-23

Technology & Mobility, Airports, MRO & Aftermarket, Aerospace, Aircraft Leasing & Financing, Transaction Advisory, Airlines

2023-2033 Commercial Aircraft and Engine Fleet Forecast

Over the next 10 years, the worldwide commercial aircraft fleet will grow 3.3% annually from 29,000 to 42,000, notwithstanding the ongoing geopolitical and supply chain challenges impacting Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) production rates, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy. The global aviation advisory firm's independent 2023-2033 Commercial Aircraft and Engine Fleet...

Article | 16-Jun-23

Technology & Mobility, Airlines

The Connected Cabin

Two decades have passed since the introduction of inflight WiFi onboard. Since then, there has been significant developments in cabin connectivity technology, not only to meet the growing demand from passengers to stay connected but also from airlines and operators alike. This paper focuses on the current trends in cabin...

Article | 01-Jun-23

Technology & Mobility, Airports, MRO & Aftermarket, Aerospace, Aircraft Leasing & Financing, Transaction Advisory, Airlines, Business & General Aviation

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) Entry-Into-Services: Key Milestones Ahead

Key Milestones Ahead With over $8 billion raised by major AAM Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and 12,000 orders placed by customers spanning the globe, the AAM industry continues to advance and shape the future of aviation. Despite nil industry revenue recognized to date, significant progress towards commercialization has been made:...

Article | 20-Apr-23

Technology & Mobility

eVTOL orders: 2022 wrapped

eVTOL Orders: 2022 Wrapped Advanced air mobility, also known as AAM, is a new concept of air transportation. While there are three major types of aircraft – Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles, Electric Short Takeoff and Landing (eSTOL) vehicles and Electric Conventional Takeoff and Landing (eCTOL) vehicles –...

Article | 01-Mar-23

MRO & Aftermarket, Aerospace, Aircraft Leasing & Financing, Transaction Advisory, Airlines

Macroeconomic Assessment and Outlook, Q1 2023

Alton Managing Director John Mowry delivered a macroeconomic assessment and outlook at Aviation Week Network’s Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance Americas conference in Dallas on February 7, 2023. John shared his insights on the economic direction of the Americas, considering key factors driving the engines market including GDP, air...

Presentation | 07-Feb-23

Airports, Airlines

Sustainable Efficiency: The Future of Ground Operations at LCC Hubs

The low-cost carrier (LCC) business model has been evolving, including prior to the pandemic. Driven to facilitate connectivity and capture a slice of alternative higher-yielding segments, many LCCs have pivoted operations at their hub airports to enable this new direction. Ground Handling Agents (GHAs) have had to adapt to such...

Article | 13-Jan-23