新鲜的视角 智慧的见解

航空业见解

Alton Aviation Consultancy?s senior leaders are globally recognized for their thought leadership. We are pleased to share our insights.
01 Dec 21
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The Rise of Advanced Air Mobility: Implications on Financing in the Aviation Sector

By Alan Lim,   Joshua Ng   |   ??

In the second of a series of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) white papers, Alton focuses the spotlight on the aircraft finance industry. In commercial aviation, aircraft lessors own approximately 50% of all aircraft; yet we have not heretofore seen a similar level of interest in the AAM space. This white paper will explore some of the factors that drive aircraft financing activities in commercial aviation, and also provide some considerations for manufacturers, lessors and lessees.

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15 Nov 21
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The Rise of Advanced Air Mobility

By Alan Lim,   Joshua Ng   |   ??

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) has been a hot topic in the aviation industry. Significant investments have been made as technology, societal trends and ESG goals converge to make AAM a reality. While the aircraft technology may be revolutionary, incorporating AAM into our aviation ecosystem will be more of an evolutionary process ? airports, airlines, and other aviation stakeholders will continue to operate within the existing aviation regulatory framework when that day happens. How does ?traditional? aviation position itself to support this vertical? What are some of the key considerations to be cognizant of? In a series of white papers, Alton Aviation Consultancy will dive into key aviation verticals of aircraft financing, airports, airlines and the aerospace / MRO ? to understand the implications for industry.

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01 Nov 21
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2021 Post-Pandemic Fleet & MRO Demand Forecast

By Adam Guthorn,   Jonathan Berger,   Joshua Ng   |   ??

Alton Aviation Consultancy has recently updated its global commercial air transport fleet and MRO demand forecast to reflect the postpandemic industry trends and dynamics. As a leading independent advisor to the aviation industry, Alton?s annual MRO forecast has become globally recognized as the commercial aviation investment community?s most trusted data source. Alton?s proprietary fleet and MRO demand forecast algorithms consist of numerous assumptions and projections to include passenger demand, aircraft retirements, used serviceable material (USM), engine shop visits and green-time usage, cabin upgrades and modifications, passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversion, and annual OEM catalogue price escalation adjustments, amongst others.

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01 Oct 21
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Low Visibility and Persistent Turbulence: The State of Commercial Aviation and Aircraft Leasing

作者 Adam Cowburn,   Bradley Dailey,   Ganesh Nair,   Jian Zhu,   John Mowry,   Joshua Ng,   Laetitia Achille,   Leah Ryan   |   ??

Low Visibility and Persistent Turbulence. The situation in the commercial aviation industry has continued to evolve with the ever-changing Covid-19 pandemic that has dominated life since early 2020. As of the writing of this report in late August 2021, it has become clear that historical trends have limited applicability to the nature of this ?black swan? event, and economic activity alone is but one driver of air traffic demand. Covid-19 rippled travel and tourism worldwide, evaporating demand and stalling expectations of a full traffic rebound in the immediate future. Over the longer term, the economy market and aviation industries are still expected generally to revert to long term trends, but near-term dynamics are changing frequently and trend towards volatility. In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2021-2022 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the years ahead.

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14 Sep 21
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Introduction to Aircraft and Engine Asset-Backed Securitizations (ABS)

By John Mowry   |   ??

At a recent ISTAT Learning Lab session, Alton Aviation Consultancy managing director John Mowry, alongside Evan Wallach, President & CEO of Global AirFinance Services presented an introduction to aircraft and engine asset backed securitizations (ABS). The session was designed for those seeking a foundational understanding of the aircraft and engine ABS market including the key elements of how deals are structured, the risks/rewards for all deal participants, and a review of recent market activity. In addition to the presentation available for download, the recorded webinar may be watched at the following link: Watch Recording.

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23 Apr 21
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Line Maintenance Sourcing Strategies in the Age of e-Commerce

By Adam Guthorn,   Dalton Fischer Linnett,   Jonathan Berger   |   ??

In a recently published a white paper entitled, Line Maintenance Sourcing Strategies in the Age of e-Commerce, Alton?s MRO Practice explores how the exponential growth of e-commerce, and the increased market power of industry behemoths such as Amazon and Alibaba, will further disrupt traditional air cargo operators? business models, and how their corresponding line maintenance sourcing strategies will have to evolve in order to successfully compete in this highly competitive market segment.

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14 Dec 20
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Covid-19: Implications for lessors

By Bradley Dailey,   Jian Zhu,   John Mowry,   Katya Bulatova,   Laetitia Achille,   Leah Ryan   |   ??

NEW YORK - December 14, 2020: Commercial aviation continues to feel the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with scheduled flights down 46% in the second week of December 2020. At the same time, 38% of the global lessor-owned passenger fleet is currently grounded, and the sharp decline in airline revenues leaves many lessees seeking commercial concessions to help ensure their survival. In the latest whitepaper chapter, Covid-19: Implications for lessors, Alton explores how lessors will operate in a market facing downward pressure on aircraft values, the role of increase portfolio consolidation, and the actionable steps that can be taken to weather the Covid overhang.

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29 Oct 20
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2020 MRO Transatlantic

By Jonathan Berger   |   ??

Alton Managing Director and global MRO advisory practice lead Jonathan Berger was invited to present at the world?s premiere MRO virtual conference ? Aviation Week?s MRO Transatlantic. In conjunction with Kevin Michaels of AeroDynamic Advisory, Jonathan discussed the short- and long-term outlook for MRO demand, post COVID-19 pandemic market trends impacting the aviation industry, and the corresponding implications for airlines, OEMs, and independent MRO suppliers.

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05 Oct 20
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Flying unfriendly skies: Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing.

作者 Adam Cowburn,   Adam Guthorn,   Bradley Dailey,   Ganesh Nair,   Jian Zhu,   John Mowry,   Jonathan Berger,   Joshua Ng,   Katya Bulatova,   Laetitia Achille,   Leah Ryan   |   ??

Flying unfriendly skies. The performance of the commercial aviation industry has historically been tied to the world?s macroeconomic environment. However, 2020, in the grip of a global pandemic, has demonstrated that economic activity alone is but one driver of air traffic demand and that historical trends have limited applicability to the nature of this ?black swan? event. Covid-19 has crippled travel and tourism worldwide, evaporating demand and stalling expectations of a full traffic rebound in the immediate future. In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2020-2021 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the year ahead. The paper explores the significant impact that COVID-19 has had on the aviation and aircraft financing/leasing markets, and posits several potential recovery scenarios with a range of optimism. The implication for airlines, lessors, and manufacturers under each recovery scenario are explored.

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02 Jun 20
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Covid-19: Implications for the commercial aviation industry

作者 Adam Cowburn,   Adam Guthorn,   Bradley Dailey,   Jian Zhu,   John Mowry,   Jonathan Berger,   Joshua Ng,   Katya Bulatova,   Laetitia Achille,   Leah Ryan,   马敏,   Yuichi Takayama   |   ??

NEW YORK - June 2, 2020: The ?New Normal? for the aviation industry is 18-24 months away and key players must prepare for an extended ?Covid overhang? period and a long, turbulent journey to recovery, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy. The global aviation advisory firm today released its independent report ?Covid-19: Implications for the commercial aviation industry?, offering detailed insight into the ongoing crisis for the whole aviation industry. The comprehensive paper sets out a list of mitigating strategies and actions for airlines, aircraft lessors, MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) providers, aerospace manufacturers, and airports to prioritize resources and manage risk. Adam Cowburn, report author and managing director in Alton?s Hong Kong office, says: ?The surest way out of this crisis is for every player across the aviation value chain to work in tandem with governments and other stakeholders to put airlines back in the air and get revenues flowing again. ?While the fight against the virus continues with travel restrictions and quarantines to limit spread, we are cautiously optimistic that the immediate phase of deep crisis for the aviation...

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