article | 05-Oct-20

Flying Unfriendly Skies: Alton Aviation Consultancy Looks at the State of Commercial Aviation and Aircraft Leasing

Alton Team: Bradley Dailey,  Ganesh Nair,  John Mowry,  Laetitia Achille,  Leah Ryan

Market: Aircraft Leasing & Financing

Flying unfriendly skies.

The performance of the commercial aviation industry has historically been tied to the world’s macroeconomic environment. However, 2020, in the grip of a global pandemic, has demonstrated that economic activity alone is but one driver of air traffic demand and that historical trends have limited applicability to the nature of this “black swan” event. Covid-19 has crippled travel and tourism worldwide, evaporating demand and stalling expectations of a full traffic rebound in the immediate future.


In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal’s 2020-2021 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the year ahead. The paper explores the significant impact that COVID-19 has had on the aviation and aircraft financing/leasing markets, and posits several potential recovery scenarios with a range of optimism. The implication for airlines, lessors, and manufacturers under each recovery scenario are explored.