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Flying unfriendly skies: Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing.
作者 Adam Cowburn, Adam Guthorn, Bradley Dailey, Ganesh Nair, Jian Zhu, John Mowry, Jonathan Berger, Joshua Ng, Katya Bulatova, Laetitia Achille, Leah Ryan | ??
Flying unfriendly skies. The performance of the commercial aviation industry has historically been tied to the world?s macroeconomic environment. However, 2020, in the grip of a global pandemic, has demonstrated that economic activity alone is but one driver of air traffic demand and that historical trends have limited applicability to the nature of this ?black swan? event. Covid-19 has crippled travel and tourism worldwide, evaporating demand and stalling expectations of a full traffic rebound in the immediate future. In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2020-2021 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the year ahead. The paper explores the significant impact that COVID-19 has had on the aviation and aircraft financing/leasing markets, and posits several potential recovery scenarios with a range of optimism. The implication for airlines, lessors, and manufacturers under each recovery scenario are explored.
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作者 Adam Cowburn, Adam Guthorn, Bradley Dailey, Jian Zhu, John Mowry, Jonathan Berger, Joshua Ng, Katya Bulatova, Laetitia Achille, Leah Ryan, 马敏, Yuichi Takayama | ??
NEW YORK - June 2, 2020: The ?New Normal? for the aviation industry is 18-24 months away and key players must prepare for an extended ?Covid overhang? period and a long, turbulent journey to recovery, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy. The global aviation advisory firm today released its independent report ?Covid-19: Implications for the commercial aviation industry?, offering detailed insight into the ongoing crisis for the whole aviation industry. The comprehensive paper sets out a list of mitigating strategies and actions for airlines, aircraft lessors, MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) providers, aerospace manufacturers, and airports to prioritize resources and manage risk. Adam Cowburn, report author and managing director in Alton?s Hong Kong office, says: ?The surest way out of this crisis is for every player across the aviation value chain to work in tandem with governments and other stakeholders to put airlines back in the air and get revenues flowing again. ?While the fight against the virus continues with travel restrictions and quarantines to limit spread, we are cautiously optimistic that the immediate phase of deep crisis for the aviation...
By Adam Cowburn | ??
Changi Exhibition Centre, Singapore, February 11, 2020: The ability of Asia-Pacific airlines to recover from the disruption of the Coronavirus pandemic may be more challenging when compared to previous epidemics, owing to lower growth rates in the regional economies, says Alton Aviation Consultancy at the Singapore Airshow 2020. Coronavirus struck during a time of seasonal peak travel demand in China, with Chinese New Year significantly increasing movement to and from the region. This timing has only exacerbated the impact of the virus and there is currently no clear end to the restrictions. Adam Cowburn, managing director at Alton says: ?The scale of global restrictions and flight suspensions has been faster and more significant than experienced during the SARS period in 2003, and the promise of recovery in the near-term is certainly not guaranteed. At the time of the SARS outbreak in 2003, the Chinese economy was growing close to 10.0%, cushioning the negative impact on air travel. Coronavirus comes at a time when the Chinese economy is estimated to grow at a more modest 6%, and with the aviation industry...
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作者 Adam Cowburn, Adam Guthorn, Bradley Dailey, Brian Rynott, John Mowry, Jonathan Berger, Joshua Ng, Laetitia Achille, Sascha Feuerherd, Yuichi Takayama | ??
Clear skies ahead? In a special white paper authored for the Airfinance Journal?s 2019-2020 Annual, Alton Aviation Consultancy looks at the state of commercial aviation and aircraft leasing, and the outlook for the year ahead. The paper explores air traffic demand trends and drivers, aircraft supply outlook including new technology programs, and airline industry profitability. Additionally, the paper explores current dynamics in the aircraft leasing and financing markets, including a review of the mid-life and end-of-life segments. Transaction volumes are quantified and segmented with respect to new deliveries, sale-leasebacks, secondary market trading, and part-outs.